基于ELM网络的污水处理COD值预报模型研究

通过对沈阳某污水处理厂的叶轮气浮法污水工艺进行研究分析,得知其过程具有多变量、非线性和时变等特性,这些特性对于处理后水质的COD值准确检测非常重要。COD值的在线检测设备通常有一定滞后,影响了现场对水质的控制和提高,为此采用ELM网络来建立COD值的预报模型,并通过MATLAB软件进行了仿真研究,仿真结果表明该模型具有较好的预报效果。     

Tropical deforestation in a future international climate policy regime—lessons from the Brazilian Amazon

The possibility of adopting national targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from tropical deforestation in a future international climate treaty has received increasing attention recently. This attention has been prompted by proposals to this end and more intensified talks on possible commitments for developing countries beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol. We analyze four main scientific and political challenges associated with national targets for emissions from tropical deforestation: (1) reducing the uncertainties in emission inventories, (2) preserving the environmental integrity of the treaty, (3) promoting political acceptance and participation in the regime, and (4) providing economic incentives for reduced deforestation. We draw the following conclusions. (1) Although there are large uncertainties in carbon flux from deforestation, these are in the same range as for other emissions included in the current Kyoto protocol (i.e., non-CO₂ GHGs), and they can be reduced. However, for forest degradation processes the uncertainties are larger. A large challenge lies in building competence and institutions for monitoring the full spectrum of land use changes in developing countries. (2 and 3) Setting targets for deforestation is difficult, and uncertainties in future emissions imply a risk of creating ‘tropical hot air’. However, there are proposals that may sufficiently deal with this, and these proposals may also have the advantage of making the targets more attractive, politically speaking. Moreover, we conclude that while a full carbon accounting system will likely be politically unacceptable for tropical countries, the current carbon accounting system should be broadened to include forest degradation in order to safeguard environmental integrity. (4) Doubts can be cast over the possible effect a climate regime alone will have on deforestation rates, though little thorough analysis of this issue has been made.

基于贝叶斯网络的航空器看错落错跑道事件研究

目前,航空器看错、落错跑道事件在国际上是一个相当突出的安全问题,这个问题在我国近年也突显出来。导致航空器看错落错跑道的原因十分复杂,且此类事件及易引发严重的后果,造成人、财、物等多方面的损失,本文特对此类问题开展了一系列的研究。为了预防航空器看错、落错跑道事故的发生,查找诱发该类事故的因素,针对航空器看错、落错跑道事故的形成特点,笔者运用贝叶斯网络探讨其各影响因素间的关系和相互作用,该网络强大的逻辑推理能力,克服了不完备样本空间带来的不足,揭示了人、机、环境与管理因素相互作用的内在规律。为改善机场安全管理的科学性、可靠性,进一步降低事故率,提供了可靠的技术支持。     

分布式防火墙系统

针对分布式防火墙系统体系结构,从新的网络应用环境出发,指出了传统边界防火墙的缺点;然后提出了分布式防火墙的基本原理,并给出了分布式防火墙的产品,重点分析了分布式防火墙产品中的主机防火墙原理;最后还介绍分布式防火墙对各种问题的解决方案及混合型防火墙的应用实例.     

山东地震台网数字与模拟记录资料对比分析

对山东数字化台网荣成、烟台、莱阳、潍坊、苍山和大山台记录的垂直向P波初动半振幅、S波与P波的振幅比、P波、S波的卓越周期及振动持续时间比等参数进行了测算,并将之与同台址相应的模拟记录进行了对比,得出分析结果为:1 数字记录的速度震级较模拟记录的位移震级平均偏小0 11,数字记录的仿真震级与模拟记录的位移震级基本一致。2 数字记录的地震波参数与模拟记录一致性较好,没有明显差异。     

Choosing policy instruments for controlling ozone depleting substances in a developing context: the case of Chile

Chile ratified the Montreal Protocol in 1990 which sets out an agenda for the reduction and then elimination of ozone depleting substances (ODS); however, by 1998 the country had not yet defined a strategy to encourage greater compliance, so that in the same year the National Environmental Commission decided to examine the policy options available. This paper examines the process followed to develop this strategy. As a first step it was necessary to look at how far the implicit policy of "business as usual" could be stretched without jeopardizing Chile's compliance obligations. A second step included quantifying compliance costs and their impact on different policy instruments and so policy choice. Finally, the attitudes of decision-makers or participants were identified, by interviews with officials of the different public agents involved, in order to weigh their views about policy. A strategy was proposed, based on this information, which the Chilean regulator has used, although not in its entirety. The methodology developed could well be useful for developing-country Protocol signatories building their own appropriate compliance strategy.     

环境监测信息网络建设思路的探讨

介绍了环境监测信息网络的组成、作用于流通范围，提出了环境监测信息的构架、环境数据库的设计原则、环境监测应用软件的开发思路，以及环境监测信息网络的管理与维护措施。     

Conceptual Models as Hypotheses in Monitoring Urban Landscapes

Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions.